'China is the enemy': Leak reveals Moscow’s hidden fears

 

From Russia’s Federal Security Service

©Provided by The Daily Digest

The eight-page internal Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) document was penned by the Department for Counterintelligence Operations’ 7th Service and was first reported on by the New York Times in June 2025, after the US news outlet obtained the documents, which it labeled as a memo. 

Recent investigative reports and leaked intelligence documents from 2024 and 2025 have pulled back the curtain on a deep-seated paranoia within the Kremlin regarding its "no-limits" partner, China.1 Despite public displays of unity between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, internal records suggest that Russia's security apparatus views China as a primary long-term threat.2


Here is a breakdown of the key revelations from these leaks:

1. The "Enemy" Branding (FSB Leaks)

In mid-2025, a leaked eight-page planning document from the FSB (Federal Security Service) revealed that the agency internally brands China as "the enemy."3

  • Intelligence Battle: The document describes a "tense and dynamically developing intelligence battle" in the shadows.4

  • "Entente-4" Program: Just three days before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the FSB reportedly launched a counterintelligence program called Entente-4.5 The name is considered a sarcastic nod to the public "friendship" while its actual goal was to block Chinese spies from undermining Russian interests while Moscow was distracted by the West.6

  • Recruitment & Spying: The FSB warned that Chinese agents are aggressively recruiting Russian scientists and officials, particularly targeting those in financial distress, to steal dual-use military technology and research on Western weapons used in Ukraine.7


2. Lowered Nuclear Threshold

Earlier leaks obtained by the Financial Times (February 2024) detailed military files from 2008–2014 that included wargaming scenarios for a Chinese invasion of Russia.8

  • Nuclear Readiness: The files showed that Russia’s threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons is significantly lower than publicly stated.9

  • Pre-emptive Strike: In simulation exercises, Russian forces practiced using nuclear weapons to "stop aggression" from an "enemy from the East." One scenario involved a nuclear response to a Chinese land invasion, even if Russia's "very existence" wasn't yet at stake.10

3. Territorial and Strategic Anxiety

Beyond immediate espionage, the leaked files highlight long-term fears regarding Russia's sovereignty:

  • The Far East: There is documented concern that Beijing is laying the groundwork for future territorial claims in Russia's Far East by emphasizing "ancient Chinese" historical links to the region.11

  • The Arctic: The FSB warned that Chinese "scientific" and mining projects in the Arctic are covers for gathering intelligence on Russian strategic infrastructure.12

  • Central Asia: Moscow views China's "soft power" expansion in former Soviet states not as healthy competition, but as a systematic attempt to push Russia out of its traditional sphere of influence.13


4. The "Transactional" Reality

Analysts suggest these leaks confirm that the Russia-China alliance is purely transactional. While Putin needs China's economic and diplomatic support to sustain the war in Ukraine, the Russian security elite (the Siloviki) are terrified that Russia is becoming a "vassal state" or a junior partner to a power that will eventually turn against them.14


Would you like me to find more details on how China has responded to these leaks, or perhaps more on the specific "Entente-4" counterintelligence measures?


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