Crude Oil & Fuel Costs

 The financial pressure on Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) like IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL has intensified due to global crude dynamics.

Key Factors Shaping the Situation

• Surging Crude Costs: The price of the Indian crude oil basket reached $117.40 per barrel, driven by geopolitical supply disruptions in West Asia, pipeline shutdowns, and maritime conflicts in key trade routes. This represents a sharp climb from the average of ~$66/bbl seen across FY 2025–26.

• Turn to Negative Marketing Margins: Credit rating agency ICRA estimates that OMCs are facing negative marketing margins of approximately -₹8/litre on petrol and -₹9/litre on diesel. The industry is absorbing cumulative daily losses of roughly ₹530 crore across transport fuels.

  
  

• Widening Domestic LPG Losses: Under-recoveries on domestic LPG cylinders stand at around ₹300 per cylinder. Cumulative LPG under-recovery buffers surpassed ₹61,900 crore earlier in the year.

• Retail Price Hold: The Indian government has held retail pump prices steady to curb inflation and buffer consumers from global volatility. While refining margins remain supported above $10/bbl due to high product cracks, marketing division under-recoveries are forcing OMCs to rely more heavily on short-term working capital borrowings.

10-Year Brent Crude Oil Price Range Data (2016 – 2026 YTD)

All values are in USD ($) per barrel based on global Brent Crude benchmark data:

Year	Yearly High ($)	Yearly Low ($)	Yearly Average ($)	High–Low Volatility Range ($)
2016	$54.97	$26.01	$43.70	$28.96
2017	$67.02	$44.35	$54.20	$22.67
2018	$86.07	$50.57	$71.30	$35.50
2019	$75.60	$53.11	$64.20	$22.49
2020	$71.75	$15.98	$41.80	$55.77
2021	$86.70	$50.56	$70.90	$36.14
2022	$139.13	$75.11	$99.00	$64.02
2023	$96.55	$70.12	$82.10	$26.43
2024	$92.18	$68.50	$80.50	$23.68
2025	$81.76	$58.22	$69.20	$23.54
2026*	$120.40	$59.45	$88.50	$60.95

*2026 figures reflect Year-To-Date trading data.

Key Macro Drivers Across the decade

• 2016 Oversupply Bottom: Global supply glut and US shale output growth pushed crude to decade lows of $26.01/bbl in early 2016 before OPEC+ production cuts began stabilizing prices.

• 2020 COVID-19 Demand Shock: Universal lockdown measures led to an unprecedented demand drop, dragging Brent down to a low of $15.98/bbl in April 2020 (while US WTI spot futures briefly turned negative).

• 2022 Russia-Ukraine War Spike: Geopolitical conflict and European supply dislocations propelled crude to a 14-year peak of $139.13/bbl in March 2022.

• 2025 Oversupply & Unwinding: Increased non-OPEC output and the phased unwinding of OPEC+ production limits suppressed prices down to $58.22/bbl.

• 2026 Volatility Spike: Geopolitical tensions and maritime trade disruptions in West Asia sparked a major price surge, driving crude back above $120/bbl before moderating.

  
  
  

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BANK STRIKE-BANK OF BARODA

The Akhil Bhartiya Bank of Baroda Officer's Sangathan (ABBOS) is a internal cadre union operating within Bank of Baroda (BoB). It represents officers across various scales in matters related to working conditions, career progression, regional management practices, and administrative policies.

Core Focus & Key Objectives

1. Representation in Industrial Disputes:

   • ABBOS collaborates with larger umbrella organizations like the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) to issue strike notices, negotiate bipartite settlements, and petition the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) and Ministry of Finance on industry-wide matters (such as the 5-day banking week and Performance Linked Incentives).

2. Protection Against Arbitrary Management Actions:

   • Acts as a forum for officers facing administrative overreach, non-transparent transfer orders, or targeted harassment by regional or zonal management.

3. Work-Life Balance & Staffing Concerns:

   • Raises collective grievances regarding excessive work hours, working on weekends/holidays, pressure to fulfill non-banking targets, and branch-level officer shortages.

     
     
     

4. Legal & Administrative Remedies:

   • Serves formal representations, organizes peaceful demonstrations (dharnas), and engages with the Chief Labour Commissioner (Central) during conciliation proceedings.

Key Differences Among BoB Officers' Bodies

Bank of Baroda has multiple unions representing its officer cadres:

Organization / Union	Affiliation / Status	Key Characteristic
All India Bank of Baroda Officers' Association (AIBOBOA)	INBOC / INTUC	Sole recognized majority bargaining association representing BoB officers.
Akhil Bhartiya Bank of Baroda Officer's Sangathan (ABBOS)	Independent Cadre Body	Active in local/regional officer grievances and joint national strike calls.
All India Bank of Baroda Officers' Union (AIBOBOU)	AIBOA	Focuses on advocacy against arbitrary transfer policies and weekend working culture.

 The Akhil Bhartiya Bank of Baroda Officer's Sangathan (ABBOS) is a internal cadre union operating within Bank of Baroda (BoB). It represents officers across various scales in matters related to working conditions, career progression, regional management practices, and administrative policies.

Core Focus & Key Objectives

1. Representation in Industrial Disputes:

   • ABBOS collaborates with larger umbrella organizations like the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) to issue strike notices, negotiate bipartite settlements, and petition the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) and Ministry of Finance on industry-wide matters (such as the 5-day banking week and Performance Linked Incentives).

2. Protection Against Arbitrary Management Actions:

   • Acts as a forum for officers facing administrative overreach, non-transparent transfer orders, or targeted harassment by regional or zonal management.

3. Work-Life Balance & Staffing Concerns:

   • Raises collective grievances regarding excessive work hours, working on weekends/holidays, pressure to fulfill non-banking targets, and branch-level officer shortages.

     
     
     

4. Legal & Administrative Remedies:

   • Serves formal representations, organizes peaceful demonstrations (dharnas), and engages with the Chief Labour Commissioner (Central) during conciliation proceedings.

Key Differences Among BoB Officers' Bodies

Bank of Baroda has multiple unions representing its officer cadres:

Organization / Union	Affiliation / Status	Key Characteristic
All India Bank of Baroda Officers' Association (AIBOBOA)	INBOC / INTUC	Sole recognized majority bargaining association representing BoB officers.
Akhil Bhartiya Bank of Baroda Officer's Sangathan (ABBOS)	Independent Cadre Body	Active in local/regional officer grievances and joint national strike calls.
All India Bank of Baroda Officers' Union (AIBOBOU)	AIBOA	Focuses on advocacy against arbitrary transfer policies and weekend working culture.

The recent strike notices served to Bank of Baroda—as well as other Public Sector Banks (PSBs)—by bank unions like the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) and the Akhil Bhartiya Bank of Baroda Officer's Sangathan (ABBOS) stem from long-standing systemic demands across the Indian public sector banking industry.

Key Reasons for the Bank Strike

1. Delay in Implementing the 5-Day Banking Week

• The Issue: Under the 12th Bipartite Settlement / 9th Joint Note signed in March 2024, the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) agreed in principle to declare all Saturdays as holidays in exchange for extending daily working hours by ~40 minutes.

• The Grievance: Despite agreement among banks and unions, the formal notification from the Ministry of Finance and the Government of India remains pending.

  
  

2. Disagreements over Performance-Linked Incentive (PLI)

• The Issue: Unions opposed a government-proposed PLI structure that created wide pay disparities between lower-scale employees/clerical staff (capped at up to 15 days of basic pay + DA) and senior officers in Scale IV and above (offered up to 365 days of basic pay).

• The Grievance: Unions demanded that PLI remain uniform based on individual bank performance, as agreed bilaterally. (Note: The government recently placed this controversial PLI proposal in abeyance).

3. Pension Updation & Dearness Allowance (DA) Parity

• The Issue: Unresolved residual issues regarding the updating of base pensions for older retirees to match recent wage revisions.

• The Grievance: Demands for a uniform Dearness Allowance (DA) neutralization formula for all past bank pensioners.

4. Pension Scheme Choice (NPS to OPS Option)

• The Issue: Bank employees covered under the National Pension System (NPS) are demanding a one-time option to switch back to the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) / Defined Benefit Pension Scheme.

Solutions & Resolution Roadmap

To resolve the industrial action and prevent operational disruptions, key stakeholders can adopt the following steps:

1. Expedited Cabinet/Government Approval for 5-Day Banking

• Action: The Ministry of Finance and Department of Financial Services (DFS) can issue formal approval for the 5-day banking week proposal already agreed upon in the 12th Bipartite Settlement.

• Impact: Satisfies the unions' primary grievance without financial loss to banks, as weekly working hours remain unchanged due to extended daily shifts.

2. Bilateral Consultation on Performance-Linked Incentives (PLI)

• Action: Re-engage the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) and UFBU leadership in bipartite talks to draft a mutually acceptable, non-discriminatory PLI framework.

• Impact: Restores equity across scales (from clerical staff to senior management).

3. Structured Pension Reform Committee

• Action: Establish a time-bound committee involving the Ministry of Finance, IBA, and union representatives to evaluate pension updation costs and the feasibility of a one-time NPS-to-OPS transition.

• Impact: Provides a clear timeline for retirees and current employees regarding pension parity.

4. Contingency & Mitigation Measures for Bank Customers

• Digital Banking Support: Customers are advised to utilize digital channels such as mobile banking, net banking, UPI, and ATMs for routine transactions during branch closures.

• Essential Operations Protection: Banks and the DFS coordinate security and operational protocols for critical infrastructure (data centers, cheque processing centers, and currency chests).

The Akhil Bhartiya Bank of Baroda Officer's Sangathan (ABBOS) is a internal cadre union operating within Bank of Baroda (BoB). It represents officers across various scales in matters related to working conditions, career progression, regional management practices, and administrative policies.

Core Focus & Key Objectives

1. Representation in Industrial Disputes:

   • ABBOS collaborates with larger umbrella organizations like the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) to issue strike notices, negotiate bipartite settlements, and petition the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) and Ministry of Finance on industry-wide matters (such as the 5-day banking week and Performance Linked Incentives).

2. Protection Against Arbitrary Management Actions:

   • Acts as a forum for officers facing administrative overreach, non-transparent transfer orders, or targeted harassment by regional or zonal management.

3. Work-Life Balance & Staffing Concerns:

   • Raises collective grievances regarding excessive work hours, working on weekends/holidays, pressure to fulfill non-banking targets, and branch-level officer shortages.

4. Legal & Administrative Remedies:

   • Serves formal representations, organizes peaceful demonstrations (dharnas), and engages with the Chief Labour Commissioner (Central) during conciliation proceedings.

Key Differences Among BoB Officers' Bodies

Bank of Baroda has multiple unions representing its officer cadres:

Organization / Union	Affiliation / Status	Key Characteristic
All India Bank of Baroda Officers' Association (AIBOBOA)	INBOC / INTUC	Sole recognized majority bargaining association representing BoB officers.
Akhil Bhartiya Bank of Baroda Officer's Sangathan (ABBOS)	Independent Cadre Body	Active in local/regional officer grievances and joint national strike calls.
All India Bank of Baroda Officers' Union (AIBOBOU)	AIBOA	Focuses on advocacy against arbitrary transfer policies and weekend working culture.

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