Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket made unusually large profits after the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, triggering questions about possible insider trading.
According to Axios, a Polymarket account created in late December placed a $30,000 bet, around Rs 27 lakh, on Maduro’s exit from power on Friday. Within 24 hours, the position reportedly paid out $436,759.61, roughly Rs 3.93 crore, after US President Donald Trump announced that American forces had taken Maduro into custody following overnight strikes on Caracas.
The account quickly became the focus of online speculation after Trump’s disclosure. An X post highlighted the timing, noting that the trader had invested heavily shortly before the operation and walked away with more than $400,000 in profit in under a day.
“A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours," the post read.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the market predicting Maduro’s removal began rising shortly before 10 pm ET on Friday, hours before Trump’s public announcement. One Polymarket trader claimed to have earned about $80,000, nearly Rs 72 lakh, after noticing a spike in late-night orders from Domino’s Pizza outlets near the Pentagon. Such activity is often cited online as an informal indicator of heightened staffing and operational activity.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to questions about the profits, Axios reported. While the timing surprised many observers, sharp swings on prediction markets have previously been seen around political events, sports outcomes and major global developments, making high interest in Maduro’s fate not entirely unprecedented.
US lawmaker moves to regulate prediction markets
Democratic US Representative from New York, Ritchie Torres, is preparing to introduce legislation aimed at tightening rules around political betting.
The proposed Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 would seek to restrict federal elected officials, political appointees and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts linked to government policy or political outcomes. The bill would apply when such individuals possess, or could reasonably obtain, material nonpublic information through their official roles.
In a stunning development on January 3, 2026, the United States military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a pre-dawn raid codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve.
The massive "win" you are referring to comes from the world of prediction markets (like Polymarket), where a few bettors made massive profits by wagering on this exact outcome just hours before it happened.
The Bet: How ₹27 Lakh became ₹3.9 Crore
On the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, traders can bet "Yes" or "No" on real-world events.
The Investment: A mysterious wallet (identified by on-chain analysts as
0x31a5...) invested approximately $33,933 (roughly ₹28.5 lakh) into the market: "Will Maduro be out of office by January 31, 2026?"5 The Payout: Following the news of the capture, the value of these "Yes" shares skyrocketed to $1.00. The trader netted a profit of $409,882—roughly ₹3.45 crore to ₹3.9 crore depending on exchange rates and additional side-bets.
6 Return on Investment: This represents a staggering 1,242% return in less than 24 hours.
7
Allegations of Insider Trading
The timing of these bets has sparked a massive controversy. Because the account was created only days before the raid and placed its largest trades just hours before President Donald Trump announced the capture on Truth Social, many analysts believe the trader had insider knowledge of the military operation.
Two other wallets also made significant gains, bringing the total "insider" profits to over $630,000.
Context: The Capture of Maduro
The capture was the climax of a month-long pressure campaign. Here are the key details of the operation:
The Raid: Elite Delta Force units conducted a night-time assault on a highly guarded "fortress" in Caracas where Maduro was hiding.
10 Current Status: Maduro was flown to New York City and is currently being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.
11 He faces a litany of charges, including narco-terrorism, conspiracy to traffic cocaine, and weapons offenses.12 Venezuela's Leadership: Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has assumed the interim presidency, though the U.S. has stated it intends to oversee a "safe and judicious transition."
13
Would you like me to look into the specific legal charges Maduro is facing in the New York court, or perhaps more details on how the prediction markets are responding to these insider trading claims?
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