The financial pressure on Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) like IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL has intensified due to global crude dynamics.
Key Factors Shaping the Situation
Surging Crude Costs: The price of the Indian crude oil basket reached $117.40 per barrel, driven by geopolitical supply disruptions in West Asia, pipeline shutdowns, and maritime conflicts in key trade routes.
This represents a sharp climb from the average of ~$66/bbl seen across FY 2025–26. Turn to Negative Marketing Margins: Credit rating agency
ICRA The industry is absorbing cumulative daily losses of roughly ₹530 crore across transport fuels. Widening Domestic LPG Losses: Under-recoveries on domestic LPG cylinders stand at around ₹300 per cylinder.
Cumulative LPG under-recovery buffers surpassed ₹61,900 crore earlier in the year. Retail Price Hold: The Indian government has held retail pump prices steady to curb inflation and buffer consumers from global volatility.
While refining margins remain supported above $10/bbl due to high product cracks, marketing division under-recoveries are forcing OMCs to rely more heavily on short-term working capital borrowings.
10-Year Brent Crude Oil Price Range Data (2016 – 2026 YTD)
All values are in USD ($) per barrel based on global Brent Crude benchmark data:
| Year | Yearly High ($) | Yearly Low ($) | Yearly Average ($) | High–Low Volatility Range ($) |
| 2016 | $54.97 | $26.01 | $43.70 | $28.96 |
| 2017 | $67.02 | $44.35 | $54.20 | $22.67 |
| 2018 | $86.07 | $50.57 | $71.30 | $35.50 |
| 2019 | $75.60 | $53.11 | $64.20 | $22.49 |
| 2020 | $71.75 | $15.98 | $41.80 | $55.77 |
| 2021 | $86.70 | $50.56 | $70.90 | $36.14 |
| 2022 | $139.13 | $75.11 | $99.00 | $64.02 |
| 2023 | $96.55 | $70.12 | $82.10 | $26.43 |
| 2024 | $92.18 | $68.50 | $80.50 | $23.68 |
| 2025 | $81.76 | $58.22 | $69.20 | $23.54 |
| 2026* | $120.40 | $59.45 | $88.50 | $60.95 |
*2026 figures reflect Year-To-Date trading data.
Key Macro Drivers Across the decade
2016 Oversupply Bottom: Global supply glut and US shale output growth pushed crude to decade lows of $26.01/bbl in early 2016 before OPEC+ production cuts began stabilizing prices.
2020 COVID-19 Demand Shock: Universal lockdown measures led to an unprecedented demand drop, dragging Brent down to a low of $15.98/bbl in April 2020 (while US WTI spot futures briefly turned negative).
2022 Russia-Ukraine War Spike: Geopolitical conflict and European supply dislocations propelled crude to a 14-year peak of $139.13/bbl in March 2022.
2025 Oversupply & Unwinding: Increased non-OPEC output and the phased unwinding of OPEC+ production limits suppressed prices down to $58.22/bbl.
2026 Volatility Spike: Geopolitical tensions and maritime trade disruptions in West Asia sparked a major price surge, driving crude back above $120/bbl before moderating.
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