COMEX gold shed 3.6% to $4,805, while spot gold declined 0.9% to $4,917.61 per ounce as of 0754 GMT, pulling back from a near one-week high touched earlier in the session. Prices had fallen nearly 4% at one point during trade. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.3% at $4,936.30 per ounce.
The correction in precious metals coincided with a broader cooling in geopolitical risk sentiment. Iran and the U.S. agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he had “very positive” discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this week. As tensions eased, commodities from crude oil to copper declined sharply.
Silver mirrored the turbulence. Spot silver fell 9.3% to $79.88 an ounce after plunging as much as 15% earlier. The metal had touched a record high of $121.64 just last week.
Notably, gold has now lost about $800 since its all-time high of $5,594.82 on January 29.
Volatility after record rally and Fed buzz
The past week has been one of the most volatile periods for gold in recent memory. Prices initially extended a record-breaking rally following news around Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair. However, sentiment shifted after President Trump said he would not have nominated Warsh if he had indicated support for raising interest rates. Gold attempted a rebound for two sessions but failed to sustain gains.
Brokerages, however, believe the structural story for gold remains intact despite the violent price swings.
“Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend,” JP Morgan said in a note.
Gold Price Targets for 2026
JP Morgan now expects gold prices to reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. The brokerage forecasts central bank gold purchases at 800 tons in 2026, citing an ongoing and still unexhausted reserve diversification trend, according to a Reuters report.
"Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets," the brokerage said in a note.
Other global banks echoed similar optimism, albeit with varied targets.
UBS raised its gold price target to $6,200 per ounce for March, June and September 2026, from $5,000 earlier, citing stronger-than-expected investment demand. However, it projected a modest cooling to $5,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 after the U.S. midterm elections.
UBS outlined a wide range: an upside scenario of $7,200 per ounce if geopolitical tensions escalate, and a downside case of $4,600 if the Federal Reserve turns hawkish.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank reiterated its $6,000 per ounce forecast for 2026 earlier this week, pointing to sustained investor appetite for the metal despite the recent correction.
However, Ventura offered the most conservative estimate among brokerages, placing its 2026 target at $5,645.
“Gold for the year 2026 is likely to cross the highs of the “Futures” of $5645 made recently. Speed of the rally, unsustainable levels and the speculative trades gave a pull back rally for a major correction,” said NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM, Ventura.
He added that physical demand remains strong and structural fundamentals tied to diversification could help gold surpass recent highs despite current instability.
"There is merit in Gold prices to rally despite the fact that Gold has entered the year 2026 with volatility. Corrections are part of restoring balance when markets move too far, too fast. Although Gold is trading in an unstable phase where confidence and risk management matter, there is a long-term conviction. It’s now a question of Gold will it “Stabilize” or “Volatility” to continue which will dictate the near-term direction," Ramaswamy further stated.
On a completely different tangent, Rich Dad Poor Dad author and investor Robert Kiyosaki reiterated his extremely bullish stance.
A move from $5,000 to $27,000 would imply more than a five-fold surge, marking one of the most aggressive long-term calls on the metal in recent years.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check
As of February 5, 2026, the gold market is experiencing extreme volatility.
Despite this sharp correction, major financial institutions remain split between a conservative recovery toward $5,645 and a more aggressive surge toward $6,300.
The Current Market Crash (February 2026)
Gold is currently consolidating around $4,700–$4,900.
The "Warsh Effect": The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair (perceived as hawkish) strengthened the U.S. Dollar.
Geopolitical Cooling: A positive phone call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, along with de-escalation signals in the Middle East, reduced the "fear premium."
Profit Taking: After a 15-17% gain in January alone, institutional investors moved to lock in profits, triggering a technical sell-off.
$5,645 vs. $6,300: The 2026 Price Battle
Analysts view the current dip not as a trend reversal, but as a "healthy correction" before the next leg up.
| Target Price | Source / Rationale | Outlook |
| $5,645 | Technical Resistance / Base Case | Represents a return to the January record high. Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggest this as a stable "recovery target" once the dollar stabilizes. |
| $6,000 | Bank of America / Deutsche Bank | BofA maintains a target of $6,000 by Spring 2026, citing limited mining supply and structural debt concerns in major economies. |
| $6,300 | J.P. Morgan | The most bullish major forecast. J.P. Morgan projects gold hitting $6,300 by year-end 2026, driven by 800 tons of projected central bank buying. |
Key Drivers to Watch
If you are tracking these targets, the "tug-of-war" will be decided by three factors:
Central Bank Diversification: J.P. Morgan notes that the shift from "paper assets" (Treasuries) to "hard assets" (Gold) is a structural multi-year trend that hasn't peaked.
U.S. Fiscal Health: If concerns over the U.S. debt trajectory or Fed independence resurface, gold is expected to bypass $6,000 rapidly.
The Gold-to-Silver Ratio: Silver recently hit $120, moving faster than gold. A "catch-up" trade in gold often follows such parabolic silver moves.
Expert Sentiment: While the short-term drop below $5,000 has shaken retail confidence, institutional conviction remains "bullish." J.P. Morgan recently reiterated that the rally is "intact" despite the sharpest one-day drop since 1983.
Would you like me to track the MCX (Indian) gold prices for you to see how the recent import duty changes are impacting local rates?
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