Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine has heightened anxieties among Western countries. Alternatively, Moscow might have considered invading a different country.
Recent reports and leaked documents have brought renewed attention to Russia's strategic posture toward Japan. These revelations generally fall into two categories: a historical whistleblower leak from the FSB regarding a pre-Ukraine invasion plan, and a more recent 2024/2025 leak of detailed strike lists.
1. The FSB Whistleblower Leak (The "Secret Attack")
In late 2022, a whistleblower from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), codenamed the "Wind of Change," reportedly leaked emails claiming that Russia was seriously preparing for a localized military conflict with Japan in August 2021.
The Target: The Kuril Islands (referred to as the Northern Territories in Japan).
The Motive: The leak suggested that Russian leadership wanted a small, "victorious" conflict to bolster domestic support and solidify control over the disputed islands before pivotting their full focus to Ukraine.
The Pivot: According to the emails, the plan was scrapped in favor of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022.
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2. 2024/2025 Leaked War Plans
Reports from late December 2024 and early 2025 (citing documents from 2008–2014 that experts say remain central to current Russian doctrine) revealed a highly detailed "blueprint" for strikes against Japan and South Korea.
160 Target Sites: The leaked files include a list of 160 specific targets in Japan and South Korea, intended to be struck with non-nuclear Kh-101 cruise missiles.
4 Civilian Infrastructure: Beyond military bases and radar stations, the list includes:
Energy: The Tokai nuclear power plant and various oil refineries.
5 Transport: The Seikan Tunnel (connecting Honshu and Hokkaido) and the Kanmon Tunnel (connecting Honshu and Kyushu).
6 Industry: Major steelworks and chemical plants.
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Strategic Goal: The documents suggest these plans were designed to "neutralize" U.S. allies in the event of a wider conflict with NATO, preventing them from being used as staging grounds for American forces.
3. Current Tensions (January 2026)
As of early 2026, Russia-Japan relations have reached a post-WWII low. Russia has recently:
Announced "War Criminal" Lists: In January 2026, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a list of 20 Japanese individuals from WWII, signaling a move to use historical grievances as diplomatic leverage.
8 Warnings over Missiles: Russia has issued "stern warnings" to the Japanese government (under PM Sanae Takaichi) against the deployment of U.S. medium-range missiles on islands like Okinawa and Yonaguni.
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Summary of Targets Identified in Leaks
| Category | Key Japanese Targets |
| Nuclear/Energy | Tokai Nuclear Power Plant, various oil refineries |
| Infrastructure | Seikan Tunnel, Kanmon Tunnel, major bridges |
| Military | Air bases, naval facilities, regional command HQs |
| Communication | Radar installations and satellite uplink sites |
Would you like more information on the specific regional defenses Japan is implementing in response to these threats?
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