Analysts say the move may weaken Moscow’s standing in a region where it has sought to expand its reach.
The potential deal highlights how new players are stepping into spaces once dominated by Russia.
Deal taking shape
Pakistani authorities are in the final stages of concluding a weapons agreement with Sudan worth about $1.5 billion, according to Reuters.
The supplies would go to the Sudanese Armed Forces, which have been fighting the Rapid Support Forces for more than two and a half years.
Reuters reported that the talks are close to completion, though the final structure of the deal has not been publicly confirmed.
Russian setback
Analysts at Defense Express say the agreement could significantly disrupt Russia’s plans in Sudan and reduce its influence in the region.
They point to Moscow’s long-standing ambition to build a naval base in Port Sudan, which would have been Russia’s first military base in Africa since the Soviet era. Those plans have already been delayed by the civil war.
“Defense Express notes that arms sales by Pakistan could significantly impact the interests of the Russian Federation in the region,” the analysts wrote.
Strategic implications
According to Defense Express, the issue goes beyond battlefield dynamics.
The analysts say the deal could remove Sudan’s need to rely on Russia for weapons in exchange for hosting a military base.
“This is not only about the Sudanese government gaining an advantage in the civil war over the Russian-backed Rapid Support Forces,” they wrote, “but also about eliminating the need to establish a Russian military base in the country.”
Russia has been accused of backing the RSF through indirect channels, a claim Moscow has denied.
What Pakistan offers
Reuters estimates the package could include 10 Karakoram-8 light attack aircraft, more than 200 reconnaissance and kamikaze drones, and air defence systems.
Less likely, but still possible, are Super Mushshak trainer aircraft and JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, jointly developed by Pakistan and China.
Pakistan has recently promoted the JF-17 as a flagship export product, even offering it to Saudi Arabia.In early 2026, Armenia has emerged as the latest significant partner to decisively pivot away from its long-standing reliance on Russian weapons, following the example of countries like India, Serbia, and Vietnam.
This shift is driven by a combination of factors: the poor performance of Russian hardware in Ukraine, delayed deliveries due to Moscow's own wartime needs, and the threat of Western sanctions.
Armenia: The Most Recent Strategic Pivot
As of January 2026, Armenia has effectively rewritten its defense doctrine, replacing Russia with India as its primary strategic arms partner.
The Switch: For decades, Armenia relied on Russia for nearly all its defense needs. However, following the 2020 and 2023 conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh—where Russian peacekeepers and equipment were seen as ineffective—Armenia has turned to New Delhi.
Key Deals: Armenia has signed contracts worth over $2 billion with India, including the Akash-1S air defense systems, Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, and ATAGS artillery.
Current Status: Reports in January 2026 indicate Armenia is in advanced talks to purchase Indian-made Su-30MKI fighter jets, a move that would represent the largest air force upgrade in its history since the Soviet era.
Other Major Countries Reducing Russian Imports
| Country | Status as of 2025–2026 | New Primary Suppliers |
| India | Dropped Russian imports from 70% to 36%. | USA (MQ-9 Reaper drones), France (Rafale), Domestic (HAL). |
| Serbia | Canceled several contracts in early 2025/2026. | France (Rafale jets), Israel (PULS artillery), China (FK-3). |
| Vietnam | Diversifying rapidly to end 70-year partnership. | USA, South Korea, Japan. |
| Egypt | Replaced Su-35 orders under US pressure. | USA, France (Rafale). |
Why Global Buyers are Abandoning Russia
Supply Chain Failures: Russia has reportedly diverted export-ready tanks (like the T-90) and missiles (like the S-400) to its own front lines in Ukraine, leaving international customers waiting for years.
Reputational Damage: The destruction of "high-end" Russian equipment by low-cost drones and older Western tech has diminished the perceived value of Russian engineering.
Sanctions Risk: The US CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) makes it economically dangerous for countries to engage in large-scale transactions with Russia's state arms exporter, Rosoboronexport.
2 Rise of Alternatives: Countries like India, South Korea, and Turkey are now offering sophisticated, combat-proven technology at competitive prices without the "sanctions baggage."
Trend Note: According to SIPRI data, Russian arms exports fell by over 60% between 2020 and 2025, moving Russia from the world's 2nd largest exporter to 3rd, behind France.
Would you like more details on Armenia’s recent deals with India or the performance of specific Russian systems that have led to these cancellations?
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