AI could replace 3 million jobs in next 10 years, study reveals full list of jobs most impacted

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Artificial intelligence is steadily creeping into the UK workforce, and a new study suggests the next decade could see millions of workers feeling its impact. According to a new report by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), up to 3 million low-skilled jobs could vanish by 2035 due to the combined forces of AI and automation. While the report acknowledges that the overall economy could still add around 2.3 million new jobs over the same period, those gains will not be evenly distributed. The biggest worry is for people in trades, machine operations and administrative roles, who face the highest risk of being replaced by machines or software.On the flip side, demand for highly skilled professionals such as engineers, scientists, and educators is expected to rise as technology boosts productivity and increases workloads "at least in the short to medium term".

List of jobs at risk

According to the NFER, occupations most vulnerable to automation include administrative assistants, factory and machine operators, warehouse workers, cashiers, and certain trades such as plumbing, roofing, and electrical work. These roles are typically repetitive and predictable, making them prime candidates for AI and robotics.

By contrast, roles that require creativity, emotional intelligence, and complex decision-making are less likely to be replaced. The report found that professionals in law, management, healthcare, education, and psychology could see rising demand, as technology enhances rather than eliminates their roles.

### AI's Job Market Shake-Up: 3 Million Roles at Risk by 2035, But New Opportunities Emerge

**November 29, 2025** – A groundbreaking report from the UK's National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) has sounded the alarm on artificial intelligence (AI) and automation's disruptive potential, projecting the loss of up to 3 million low-skilled jobs by 2035. Titled *The Skills Imperative 2035*, the study—funded by the Nuffield Foundation and based on surveys of over 16-65-year-olds in England—warns that labor market changes are accelerating three times faster than earlier forecasts. While routine tasks in clerical, manual, and operational roles face obsolescence, the report paints a nuanced picture: overall UK employment is expected to grow, with 2.3 million new positions emerging in high-skilled sectors like science, engineering, law, healthcare, and education.

The research underscores a stark divide: AI will automate repetitive physical and cognitive work, hitting entry-level and mid-tier jobs hardest. However, it could augment human roles in creative, empathetic, and decision-making fields, potentially boosting productivity and creating demand for "essential employment skills." As NFER researchers note, without urgent upskilling, this shift risks widening inequalities, trapping workers in declining occupations and exacerbating youth unemployment.

#### Jobs Most at Risk: The Full List

The report identifies categories of high-risk roles based on their susceptibility to AI-driven automation, such as software bots handling data entry or robots performing assembly-line tasks. Here's the detailed breakdown of the most impacted occupations, drawn from NFER's analysis and corroborated by sector-specific projections:

| Category                  | Specific Roles Most Impacted                          | Estimated Vulnerability | Why AI Targets Them |

|---------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------|

| **Administrative & Secretarial** | Administrative assistants, data entry clerks, receptionists | High (routine data processing) | AI tools like chatbots and OCR software can handle filing, scheduling, and basic admin faster and error-free. |

| **Customer Service**      | Call center agents, retail cashiers, support staff    | High (conversational AI) | Voice assistants and virtual agents (e.g., GPT-based systems) resolve queries 24/7 without human intervention. |

| **Machine & Factory Operations** | Factory/machine operators, assembly line workers     | Very High (robotic automation) | Industrial robots and predictive maintenance AI outperform humans in speed and precision on repetitive tasks. |

| **Warehouse & Logistics** | Warehouse pickers/packers, inventory clerks           | High (e-commerce automation) | Autonomous drones and robotic sorters streamline fulfillment, reducing need for manual labor. |

| **Retail & Trades**       | Cashiers, basic trades (plumbing, roofing, electrical assembly) | Medium-High (self-checkout & tools) | AI-powered kiosks and diagnostic tools automate transactions and simple repairs, though skilled trades may adapt. |

| **Trading & Finance Entry-Level** | Junior traders, basic financial clerks                | Medium (algorithmic trading) | AI algorithms execute trades and analyze data in milliseconds, sidelining routine monitoring roles. |

These roles account for the bulk of the 3 million at-risk jobs, primarily in low-to-mid skill brackets. Junior positions across media, data analysis, and admin are particularly vulnerable, as AI takes over research and drafting.

#### The Silver Lining: Growing Sectors and Essential Skills

Not all doom and gloom—NFER forecasts net job growth, with 2.3 million new roles in professional fields where AI acts as a co-pilot:

- **High-Growth Areas**: Science/engineering (e.g., AI ethicists, renewable tech specialists), legal services (AI-assisted case analysis), healthcare/clinical professions, management/leadership, education/teaching, and psychology/mental health.

- **Safer Traits**: Jobs demanding creativity, emotional intelligence, complex problem-solving, and human judgment—think therapists, strategists, or innovators—will thrive.

To navigate this, the report spotlights **six Essential Employment Skills (EES)** that will be in high demand by 2035:

1. **Collaboration** – Teamwork in hybrid AI-human environments.

2. **Communication** – Articulating ideas across tech and people.

3. **Creative Thinking** – Innovating beyond algorithms.

4. **Information Literacy** – Evaluating AI-generated data critically.

5. **Organising, Planning & Prioritising** – Overseeing automated workflows.

6. **Problem-Solving & Decision-Making** – Ethical choices AI can't replicate.

Shortages in these could stifle growth, per NFER.

#### Recommendations: A Call to Action

The study urges a "collective response" from governments, employers, and educators:

- **Early Intervention**: Bolster school support to tackle inequalities and embed EES from primary levels.

- **Adult Retraining**: Rebuild skills systems with accessible, tech-focused programs for mid-career workers.

- **Pathway Building**: Guide youth into growing occupations via apprenticeships and career advice.

- **Policy Push**: Invest in lifelong learning to prevent "skills traps" in declining jobs.

As Carsten Jung, NFER's head of society and learning, warns: "The pace of change means we can't wait—proactive upskilling is key to turning disruption into opportunity."

This report arrives amid global AI debates, echoing MIT's finding that 11.7% of the U.S. workforce is already AI-replaceable. For UK workers, the message is clear: Adapt or automate. What's your take—time to learn those EES? Share below.

*Sources: NFER Report (Nov 28, 2025); Independent, NDTV Profit.*

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