Gold prices have faced a sharp correction ahead of October’s FOMC meeting, falling below $4,000 per ounce and losing more than 10% in a week, but analysts predict a rebound if the US Federal Reserve signals rate cuts or dovish policy, as lower rates typically boost gold’s appeal.financialexpress+3
FOMC Meeting: Crucial Catalyst
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting (Oct 28–29) caps a volatile month for gold, which saw both record highs and sharp declines. Markets widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut following weak US inflation data. If Fed Chair Powell hints at further cuts or acknowledges “stagflation” risks, it may set the stage for a gold price rally in the coming weeks. Conversely, a hawkish stance or “wait-and-see” commentary could mean additional short-term selling.financemagnates+3
Analyst Views: Rebound Likely
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JP Morgan and other major institutions remain bullish for the next cycle, forecasting gold could rise to $5,055/oz by late 2026 and possibly $6,000/oz by 2028, driven by central bank demand and macro uncertainty.jpmorgan+1
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Technical analysts warn of volatility and possible consolidation, but see strong support near $3,900–$4,000/oz levels and expect renewed institutional buying if rate cuts materialize.reuters+2
Factors Influencing Gold Price Recovery
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US-China trade deal progress: Reduces safe-haven demand in the short run but could quickly reverse on any negative news.fxstreet+2
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Central bank buying: Remains robust and could provide a major floor for prices.gold+1
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Geopolitical risks: Conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and broader concerns about dollar debasement keep gold attractive long-term.timesofindia.indiatimes+2
India Perspective
Gold remains up nearly 50% for the year in India, making it one of 2025’s strongest-performing assets despite a substantial correction from recent record highs. MCX gold futures slipped ₹13,000 from their peak, but underlying demand and macro risks could support a recovery if the US Fed delivers on rate cuts.plindia+1
Conclusion
Gold prices may continue to see swings immediately after October’s FOMC meeting. However, most experts believe the prospects for recovery are strong if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish tone and rate cuts take center stage, with $4,000/oz likely to become a battleground support. Investors should stay mindful of volatility, using pullbacks as opportunities for gradual entry rather than chasing momentum.
After making two double tops in quick time, gold prices have crashed. Gold reached an all-time high of 4381.58 and now trades around $3,941, nearly 10% lower.
Silver also saw selling pressure as the price fell below $47 per ounce. Last week, silver fell more than 6% as profit-taking slammed the market amid fears of overvaluation following the metal’s run to record levels.
Gold price today in India is Rs 1,18,210. After reaching to all-time high level of around Rs 1,30,620 on October 20, the price has fallen by about Rs 12,000 or 10% from record high.
So far in 2025, gold prices have increased by nearly 50%, driven by economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as strong central bank purchases. Silver is up by 60% year-to-date.
Of late, both gold and silver prices have crashed by over 10%.
Reasons cited for the selling pressure seen in the precious metals are profit booking amidst expectations of a US-China trade deal diminished demand for this safe-haven asset.
As risk sentiment improves, the US stock market indices are at new record highs, while safe-haven assets such as gold and silver lag.
The progress in US-China trade negotiations seems to have dampened demand for safe-haven metals.
