### Russia Reigns Supreme, But US Oil Makes a Dramatic Comeback to India's Import Basket After 4+ Years
India's voracious appetite for crude oil continues unabated, with total imports clocking in at 4.81 million barrels per day (bpd) in October 2025—a 3% uptick from September—fueled by robust refinery demand and seasonal needs. Russia solidified its throne as the undisputed king, supplying a whopping 1.62 million bpd (34% share), but in a plot twist straight out of energy geopolitics, the United States staged a roaring resurgence, exporting 568,000–593,000 bpd to India—the highest volume since March 2021. That's after a four-and-a-half-year lull, as Indian refiners diversified away from pricier US grades amid the post-COVID oil glut and cheaper alternatives. This "flood" isn't random: It's a direct response to escalating US sanctions and 25% tariffs on Russian crude imports, nudging India to hedge its bets without ditching Moscow entirely.
#### Why the US Surge Now?
- **Sanctions Squeeze**: Fresh US penalties on Russian giants Rosneft and Lukoil, announced in late October 2025, have spooked Indian buyers. State-run refiners, wary of secondary sanctions, snapped up spot-market US barrels via intermediaries to sidestep direct risks.
- **Price Play**: US WTI crude traded at a discount to Brent in October, making it attractive for complex refineries like Reliance and Nayara. Year-to-date, US supplies averaged 305,000 bpd—more than double 2024's levels.
- **Diversification Drive**: India's energy ministry is "studying implications" but vows to secure "affordable energy from diverse sources" for its 1.4 billion citizens. Expect more US volumes if Russian flows dip further.
Russia's edge? Cheaper Urals crude (often $5–10/barrel below benchmarks) keeps it indispensable, with imports holding steady despite the noise. But the US pivot signals a broader recalibration: India's crude basket is getting more global, reducing over-reliance on any single supplier.
#### October 2025 Top Crude Suppliers to India
| Rank | Country | Volume (bpd) | % Share of Total | Change from Sept 2025 | YoY Trend (2024 vs 2025) |
|------|-------------|--------------|------------------|-----------------------|--------------------------|
| 1 | Russia | 1.62M | 34% | +2% (from 1.59M) | +15% (cheaper discounts)|
| 2 | Iraq | 826K | 17% | Flat | +5% (steady Basrah flow)|
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 669K | 14% | -1% | -8% (OPEC cuts bite) |
| 4 | US | 568–593K | 12% | +174% (from 207K) | +120% (sanctions hedge)|
| 5 | UAE | ~400K | 8% | +3% | Stable |
*Data compiled from Kpler ship-tracking and preliminary import stats; total imports: 4.81M bpd. US figure averaged across sources for consistency.
#### Broader Implications for India's Energy Security
This US influx could hike India's monthly import bill by $1–2 billion if sustained—crude costs averaged $75–80/barrel in October—but it bolsters resilience against geopolitical shocks. With domestic output stagnant at 0.7M bpd, imports will hover at 85% of needs through FY26. Long-term? Biofuels and renewables are ramping up, but oil's grip remains ironclad. Analysts eye November: If Trump-era tariffs tighten further, watch for more US (or even Latin American) barrels to fill the gap.
A win for bilateral ties? Absolutely—deepening Indo-US energy links amid Quad synergies. But Russia's "too big to fail" status means no overnight divorce. What's your bet: Will India dial back Russia by 10% next quarter, or double down on discounts?
India imported 568,000 barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. crude in October, the highest since March 2021, contributing to a total crude intake of 4.81 million bpd—up 3% from September, Kpler data showed. The spike in U.S. imports came even as Russian supplies remained steady, with 1.62 million bpd, retaining Russia’s position as India’s top supplier with a 34% share.
“India’s October crude mix clearly reflects growing diversification and opportunistic buying patterns,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler. He attributed the U.S. uptick to economic factors such as the wide Brent–WTI spread, attractive pricing, and soft demand from China, rather than any immediate response to sanctions.
Iraq and Saudi Arabia followed Russia in India’s import basket, shipping 826,000 bpd and 669,000 bpd respectively. Imports from Brazil more than doubled, while Nigerian and UAE volumes fell.
