Ukraine Strikes Russia's Kirishi Oil Refinery: Fuel Crisis Looms as India Faces Tough Choices
On September 14, 2025, Ukrainian drones struck the Kirishi oil refinery in Russia's Leningrad region, one of the country's largest oil-processing facilities, sparking a fire and intensifying Russia's ongoing fuel crisis. Operated by Surgutneftegas, the refinery processes approximately 17.7 million metric tons of crude oil annually (about 355,000 barrels per day), making it a critical component of Russia's energy infrastructure. This attack, part of a series of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil facilities, has raised concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies, with significant implications for India, a major buyer of Russian crude. As Moscow imposes export bans to manage domestic shortages, India must navigate a complex geopolitical and economic landscape to secure its energy needs.
The Kirishi Refinery Attack
According to Ukraine's General Staff, the drone strike on the Kirishi refinery caused explosions and a fire, with images circulating on social media showing a blaze and thick smoke against the night sky. Ukraine's drone command confirmed the attack as a "successful strike" aimed at disrupting Russia's oil infrastructure, which Kyiv claims fuels Moscow's war efforts in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Leningrad regional governor Alexander Drozdenko reported that three drones were downed in the Kirishi area, with debris sparking the fire. While the blaze was extinguished and no injuries were reported, Russian officials have not disclosed the full extent of the damage. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that at least 80 Ukrainian drones were intercepted across Russia, occupied Crimea, and the Sea of Azov that night.
This strike is part of a broader Ukrainian campaign targeting Russia's oil and gas sector. Since August 2025, Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted approximately 13-20% of Russia's oil refining capacity, causing gasoline shortages and record-high fuel prices in some regions. Social media reports have highlighted long queues at gas stations in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories, underscoring the severity of the crisis.
Russia's Fuel Crisis and Export Bans
Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, is grappling with a combination of seasonal demand spikes and supply disruptions due to Ukrainian attacks. To address domestic shortages, Moscow implemented a full ban on gasoline exports until September 30, 2025, with partial restrictions extending to October 31, 2025. These measures follow earlier export curbs in July 2025, prompted by peak demand from tourism and agriculture. The Kirishi attack further strains Russia's ability to meet domestic fuel needs, potentially forcing Moscow to extend or tighten these bans.
The disruption of Russia's oil infrastructure has broader implications for its war economy. Oil and gas exports account for a significant portion of Russia's budget, funding a 25% increase in defense spending in 2025, the highest since the Cold War. Ukrainian strikes aim to undermine this financial lifeline, raising the stakes for Moscow as it faces both domestic discontent and international pressure.
India's Dependence on Russian Oil
India, the world's third-largest oil importer, has become heavily reliant on Russian crude since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. From April 2022 to June 2025, India saved nearly $17 billion by importing discounted Russian oil, which surged from less than 2% to 36% of its total crude imports, averaging about 1.78 million barrels per day. However, recent data indicates a decline to 1.1 million barrels per day in September 2025, driven by stricter U.S. and EU sanctions and India's negotiations for deeper discounts.
India's Nayara Energy refinery, partially owned by Russia's Rosneft, has faced supply challenges after Saudi Arabia and Iraq halted deliveries due to EU sanctions introduced in July 2025. This has forced India to seek alternative suppliers while continuing to rely on Russian crude to stabilize domestic fuel prices and cushion inflation.
The Kirishi attack and Russia's export bans pose a direct threat to India's energy security. Any prolonged disruption in Russian oil supplies could drive up global oil prices, impacting India's economy, which is already navigating high energy costs and geopolitical pressures. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump's recent call for NATO allies to halt Russian oil purchases and impose sanctions adds complexity, as India balances its economic interests with Western expectations.
India's Potential Response
India faces a delicate balancing act in responding to this crisis. Several options are likely under consideration:
Diversifying Oil Suppliers: India could accelerate efforts to secure alternative crude supplies from Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, which have historically been major suppliers. However, these sources are often more expensive than discounted Russian oil, potentially increasing fuel costs for Indian consumers.
Negotiating Deeper Discounts: India has already demonstrated its leverage by negotiating lower prices for Russian crude. Delhi could push for further discounts to maintain supply volumes, though this risks straining ties with Western allies pressing for reduced Russian oil imports.
Boosting Domestic Refining and Storage: India could leverage its strategic petroleum reserves and enhance domestic refining capacity to mitigate short-term supply disruptions. This approach would require significant investment but could provide long-term energy security.
Diplomatic Engagement: India is likely to continue its neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, engaging diplomatically with both Moscow and Kyiv to ensure stable oil supplies while avoiding entanglement in the war. India may also strengthen ties with the U.S. to navigate sanctions-related challenges without fully aligning with Western policies.
Exploring Alternative Energy: To reduce reliance on imported oil, India could accelerate its renewable energy initiatives, such as solar and wind, though this is a long-term strategy that cannot immediately offset disruptions in crude supplies.
Geopolitical and Economic Implications
The Kirishi refinery attack underscores the fragility of global oil markets amid the Russia-Ukraine war. For India, the stakes are high. Continued reliance on Russian oil risks exposure to supply chain disruptions and international scrutiny, particularly as the U.S. and EU tighten sanctions. Conversely, shifting away from Russian crude could strain India's fiscal balance and fuel inflation, impacting millions of consumers.
The broader geopolitical context adds further complexity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's strategy of targeting Russia's oil infrastructure aims to force Moscow to the negotiating table, but it also escalates tensions, as evidenced by Russia's concurrent testing of hypersonic missiles. Meanwhile, Trump's push for NATO to boycott Russian oil could pressure India to align more closely with Western policies, potentially at the cost of economic benefits derived from Russian imports.
Conclusion
The Ukrainian strike on Russia's Kirishi refinery has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, exacerbating Russia's fuel crisis and raising questions about the future of its oil exports. For India, the attack highlights the risks of its heavy reliance on discounted Russian crude. As Moscow grapples with domestic shortages and export restrictions, India must act swiftly to diversify its oil sources, negotiate favorable terms, and invest in energy resilience. The coming weeks will be critical as India navigates this crisis, balancing economic imperatives with geopolitical realities in a rapidly evolving global landscape.
Stay tuned for updates as the situation develops.
