Turkey and Pakistan Revise $900-Million Drone Deal After Setback Against India
In a significant development following the India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025, known as Operation Sindoor, Turkey and Pakistan have moved to revise a $900-million drone deal to address critical shortcomings exposed during the confrontation. The deal, aimed at bolstering Pakistan’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capabilities, reflects a deepening defense partnership between Ankara and Islamabad, driven by their shared strategic interests and a desire to counter India’s growing military prowess. This blog explores the context of the revised deal, the reasons behind its overhaul, and its broader implications for regional geopolitics.
Operation Sindoor: A Wake-Up Call for Turkey and Pakistan
During Operation Sindoor, a four-day clash from May 7–10, 2025, Pakistan launched a large-scale drone offensive against India, deploying 300–400 Turkish-made drones, including Asisguard Songar, Bayraktar TB2, and YIHA-III models, across 36 locations along India’s western border. The operation aimed to test India’s air defense systems and gather intelligence but ended in a humiliating defeat for Pakistan. India’s integrated air defense network, bolstered by indigenous systems like Akash and Akashteer, neutralized every drone, with 50 destroyed by kinetic means like L-70 and ZU-23mm guns and 20 jammed or spoofed by non-kinetic countermeasures.
The failure of Turkish drones, once celebrated for their battlefield success in conflicts like Ukraine and Libya, dealt a significant blow to Turkey’s defense industry and its reputation as a reliable arms supplier. Reports indicate that Turkish operators were involved in the operation, with two military operatives killed during India’s retaliatory strikes, further highlighting the stakes of Turkey’s involvement. This setback prompted high-level discussions between Turkish and Pakistani officials to reassess their drone technology and tactics.
The Revised $900-Million Drone Deal
Post-Operation Sindoor, Turkey and Pakistan have agreed to restructure their $900-million drone deal to enhance precision-strike and surveillance capabilities. The revised agreement, discussed in early July 2025 in Islamabad, includes advanced UAVs like the Bayraktar TB2 and AKINCI, alongside over 700 Turkish-made loitering munitions, such as the Kemankes cruise missile. The deal aims to address deficiencies in drone performance against modern air defense systems, particularly India’s radar-dense and electronic warfare capabilities, which exposed vulnerabilities in Turkish technology.
Key elements of the revised deal include:
- Upgraded UAV Systems: The inclusion of Bayraktar AKINCI drones, known for their high-altitude, long-endurance capabilities, and improved TB2 models to enhance Pakistan’s operational reach.
- Loitering Munitions: Over 700 kamikaze drones to bolster Pakistan’s precision-strike capacity, designed to overwhelm air defenses through sheer numbers and advanced targeting.
- Technology Transfer and Local Production: Pakistan may gain access to Turkish technology for local assembly of drones, such as the Anka, to reduce reliance on imports.
- Countermeasures Development: Enhanced electronic warfare and anti-jamming systems to counter India’s sophisticated air defense network.
High-level meetings in Islamabad, involving Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Guler, and Pakistani leaders like Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir, underscored the urgency of these upgrades. The deal also aligns with a broader goal to boost bilateral trade to $5 billion by the end of 2025, signaling a deepening civil-military-security axis between the two nations.
Why the Revision Was Necessary
The failure of Turkish drones during Operation Sindoor exposed critical weaknesses:
- Vulnerability to Air Defenses: India’s Akashteer system, integrated with Akash missiles and older platforms like Pechora and OSA-AK-M, effectively countered Pakistan’s drone swarm tactics. The drones’ predictable flight paths and limited electronic countermeasures made them easy targets.
- Reputational Damage: Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2, previously hailed as a game-changer, faced a “devastating reputational blow” after failing to penetrate India’s defenses, raising doubts about its battlefield credibility in radar-dense environments.
- Operational Shortcomings: Forensic analysis of drone debris confirmed the use of Asisguard Songar models, which lacked the stealth and maneuverability needed to evade India’s counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS).
Turkey has since initiated an investigation into the drones’ failure, focusing on improving AI-guided systems and testing advanced munitions like the Kemankes-1 missile to enhance future performance.
The Turkey-Pakistan Nexus: A Strategic Alliance Against India
Turkey’s support for Pakistan extends beyond drones, encompassing naval modernization (e.g., MILGEM-class corvettes and Agosta 90B submarine upgrades) and intelligence-sharing. This partnership is rooted in shared Islamic identity, historical alliances like the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), and Turkey’s vocal support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. During Operation Sindoor, Turkey explicitly condemned India’s actions, unlike other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have warmed to India.
The revised drone deal is part of a broader “anti-India” strategic alignment, with Turkish media framing it as a response to India’s growing defense ties with Greece, a NATO rival of Turkey. Reports of India offering its S-400-evading Long-Range Land Attack Cruise Missile (LR-LACM) to Greece have heightened Ankara’s concerns, as such a deal could tilt the balance of power in the Aegean Sea. This geopolitical chess game underscores the interconnected nature of regional rivalries, with Turkey and Pakistan aligning to counter India’s rising influence.
Implications for India and Regional Dynamics
The revised drone deal poses new challenges for India, which is already locked in a drone arms race with Pakistan. In response to Operation Sindoor, India announced a $234-million incentive program to bolster its domestic drone industry, aiming to reduce reliance on imported components from China and counter Pakistan’s Turkish and Chinese platforms. India’s success in neutralizing Turkish drones has also opened opportunities for its defense exports, with countries like Greece and Cyprus expressing interest in Indian systems like BrahMos and Akash.
For Turkey, the drone deal’s revision is critical to restoring its defense industry’s credibility. The failure in Operation Sindoor has led to warnings that African and Central Asian nations, key markets for Turkish drones, may look elsewhere, impacting Ankara’s ambitions as a regional power. For Pakistan, the deal is a lifeline to modernize its military and maintain pressure on India, particularly along the Line of Control (LoC).
Conclusion
The revision of the $900-million Turkey-Pakistan drone deal marks a pivotal moment in their strategic partnership, driven by the need to address the embarrassing failure of Turkish drones against India’s air defenses during Operation Sindoor. As Turkey and Pakistan deepen their defense cooperation, India is countering with its own technological advancements and strategic alliances, notably with Greece. This escalating arms race and the interplay of regional rivalries highlight the volatile geopolitics of South Asia and beyond. While the revised deal aims to give Pakistan a tactical edge, India’s proven air defense capabilities and growing global partnerships suggest that the balance of power remains contested.
Disclaimer: Information regarding the drone deal and its specifics is based on media reports and may require official confirmation from Turkey and Pakistan.
