‘Nothing’s Safe Anymore’: Pakistani Expert Admits Fear Over India’s 7,500-kg Bunker Buster Missile
On July 23, 2025, reports surfaced that India is developing a formidable 7,500-kg bunker buster missile, a conventional variant of the Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), capable of penetrating 80–100 meters underground. This development, led by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), has sparked alarm across the border, with Pakistani experts expressing fears over its potential to neutralize deeply buried nuclear command centers and military infrastructure. Writing in Dawn, Pakistani strategic affairs expert Rabia Akhtar warned that “nothing’s safe anymore,” highlighting the missile’s ability to blur the line between conventional and nuclear warfare. This blog explores the missile’s capabilities, its strategic implications, and the concerns it raises in Pakistan and beyond.
The Missile: A Game-Changer in India’s Arsenal
The DRDO is reportedly modifying the nuclear-capable Agni-V, which has a range of over 5,000 km, to create two advanced variants: a bunker buster with a 7,500–8,000 kg conventional warhead and an airburst variant for surface-level destruction. The bunker buster, designed to travel at hypersonic speeds of 8–24 Mach (9,878–24,696 km/h), can strike targets up to 2,500 km away, sufficient to reach fortified sites in Pakistan and China. Its ability to penetrate 80–100 meters underground—equivalent to a 33-story building—makes it ideal for targeting hardened command centers, missile silos, radar stations, and nuclear storage facilities.
This development draws inspiration from the U.S.’s GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 13,600-kg bomb used in June 2025 to strike Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility. Unlike the U.S., which relies on costly B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, India’s missile-based approach leverages its established expertise in ballistic missile technology, offering a cost-effective alternative. The Indian variant’s warhead, though lighter than the GBU-57, is designed for deeper penetration (80–100 meters vs. the GBU-57’s 60 meters), using propulsion to drive the warhead into fortified targets before detonation.
Operation Sindoor: The Catalyst
India’s push for bunker buster capabilities gained momentum after Operation Sindoor in May 2025, when the Indian Air Force (IAF) launched missile strikes, including BrahMos missiles, on 11 Pakistani airbases, such as Noor Khan near Pakistan’s nuclear hub at Kirana Hills. The operation, a retaliation for a terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians, exposed gaps in India’s ability to target deeply buried infrastructure. Satellite imagery from June 2025, analyzed by geo-intelligence expert Damien Symon, confirmed damage to Pakistan’s Nur Khan airbase, underscoring the strategic importance of such facilities. India’s new missile aims to address this gap, enhancing its deterrence against fortified targets.
Pakistan’s Fears: A “Hazardous Entanglement”
In her Dawn article, Rabia Akhtar, Dean of Social Sciences at the University of Lahore, described the missile as a “dangerous shift” in India’s military doctrine. She warned that its ability to destroy nuclear command-and-control centers risks a “hazardous entanglement” between conventional and nuclear strategies. Pakistan, which maintains a “Full Spectrum Deterrence” policy allowing first use of nuclear weapons in response to existential threats, sees the missile as a direct challenge. Unlike India’s No First Use (NFU) nuclear policy, Pakistan’s doctrine permits preemptive nuclear strikes, raising fears that a conventional bunker buster could be mistaken for a nuclear attack, triggering catastrophic escalation.
Akhtar’s concerns echo broader anxieties in Pakistan, where experts fear the missile could neutralize critical assets like the Kirana Hills nuclear site. Posts on X, such as those from @dailyupdates04 and @akhilpillai0589, reflect Pakistani media’s alarm, with Dawn noting that “neither the army nor underground hideouts” are safe. The missile’s precision and deep-strike capability threaten Pakistan’s smaller, geographically limited nuclear arsenal, amplifying fears of a strategic imbalance.
Strategic Implications for South Asia
The development of India’s bunker buster missile reshapes the strategic calculus in South Asia, particularly in the context of India-Pakistan and India-China tensions:
Deterrence Without Nuclear Escalation: The missile allows India to target fortified sites without violating its NFU policy, offering a conventional counterforce option. This could deter adversaries by holding their most secure assets at risk, as noted by Indian defense analyst Vivek Mishra.
Regional Arms Race: Pakistan’s concerns, coupled with China’s fortified border facilities, may accelerate an arms race. China’s DF-15 bunker buster, with a 25-meter penetration depth, and Russia’s KAB-series bombs pale in comparison to India’s 80–100-meter capability, potentially prompting countermeasures.
Risk of Miscalculation: The missile’s ability to strike nuclear command centers blurs the line between conventional and nuclear warfare. Pakistani experts fear that an attack on such sites could be misread as a preemptive nuclear strike, prompting a disproportionate response. The 2019 Balakot crisis and May 2025 clashes, where Pakistan signaled nuclear readiness via its National Command Authority, highlight this risk.
Space-Based Surveillance: India’s plan to launch 52 AI-powered defense satellites by 2029 under Space-Based Surveillance Phase-3 complements the missile’s precision, providing real-time monitoring of Pakistani and Chinese borders. This enhances India’s ability to identify and target underground facilities.
Global Context: Learning from the U.S.-Iran Strike
The U.S. strike on Iran’s Fordow facility in June 2025, using 14 GBU-57 bombs, demonstrated the effectiveness of bunker busters against deeply buried nuclear sites. India’s missile, designed to surpass the GBU-57’s penetration depth, reflects a strategic shift inspired by this operation. Unlike the U.S., which relies on air-dropped bombs, India’s missile-based system offers greater flexibility and rapid response, leveraging its canister-based launch system. This development positions India among an elite group of nations with advanced deep-strike capabilities, alongside the U.S., Russia, and China.
Challenges and Uncertainties
While the missile is a significant leap for India’s defense capabilities, several challenges remain:
- Development Timeline: The DRDO has not announced a testing or deployment timeline, indicating the project is in early stages. This uncertainty may delay operational readiness.
- Cost and Feasibility: Modifying the Agni-V for a heavier warhead and reduced range requires significant engineering, but India’s missile expertise makes this more cost-effective than developing stealth bombers.
- Geopolitical Fallout: The missile’s development may strain India-Pakistan relations, already tense after Operation Sindoor and ceasefire violations in May 2025. Pakistan’s retaliatory missile tests, like the 450-km Abdali Weapon System, signal heightened alertness.
- Ethical and Strategic Risks: The potential for miscalculation, as highlighted by Akhtar, underscores the need for clear communication and de-escalation mechanisms to prevent unintended nuclear escalation.
Conclusion
India’s 7,500-kg bunker buster missile, capable of striking 80–100 meters underground, marks a bold step in its strategic evolution, driven by the DRDO’s ambition to counter fortified threats from Pakistan and China. Pakistani expert Rabia Akhtar’s warning that “nothing’s safe anymore” captures the unease across the border, where fears of escalation and strategic imbalance loom large. While the missile enhances India’s deterrence without breaching its NFU policy, it also risks destabilizing an already volatile region. As India advances its missile and space-based surveillance capabilities, diplomatic efforts to manage tensions will be crucial to prevent miscalculations. For more details, refer to The Economic Times, Hindustan Times, and India Today.
